Tuapte Semper Ingredere Via

Community, People, Localization – a return to a human scale

Agriculture, Debt and Permacuture

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Looks like drought in North America and parts of Europe will see food prices be substantially higher this winter.  Probably gasoline prices too in the US with their emphasis on ethanol from corn.  Corn yields expected to be at least down 30% so grass fed meat won’t seem that expensive soon.
A lot more studies coming out on perennial agriculture now vs the heavy emphasis on annuals in production for all sorts of reasons.   Costs, drought, soil depletion and a growing scarcity of arable land.   Lots of research and testing now of perennial grain crops which would far easier on the pocketbook and soil.   Big agricultural companies will likely fight tooth and nail to prevent the evolution but it seems inevitable to me.  http://www.landinstitute.org/

With increasing debt levels its debatable how long the party in the west will continue and how much funding will be available for all sorts of things going forward.   The 10 most indebted countries in the world are all the big western economies including canada.  By 2015 these countries have 15 trillion in debt to roll over and renew.  Currently unlikely that is possible except by the continuation of central banking purchasing of debt with the resulting currency debasement and erosion of savings, pensions and increase in daily costs.

When it comes to estimating the biggest threat to the global financial system, by far the biggest threat and biggest unknown is the total Financial debt in the system, for the simple reason that as we have been showing for over two years, it is simply impossible to quantify just what the real level of such debt in the developed world truly is, especially when one accounts for shadow liabilities, rehypothecated collateral, derivatives, and all those other footnotes in financial statements that only become relevant when daisy-chained collateral links start collapsing following the default of one or more financial entities, and when gross becomes net. What we can, however, do is show the other three major categories of debt currently existing in the system: Government, Corporate and Household debt, as they are distributed among the “developed” countries. We also know what the tresholds are beyond which the debt becomes unsustainable. In the words of the BIS: “For government debt,  the threshold is around 85% of GDP… When corporate debt goes beyond 90% of GDP, it becomes a drag on growth. And for household debt, we report a threshold around 85% of GDP, although the impact is very imprecisely estimated.”

So in light of all these various thresholds, where do the “developed countries” of the world stack up? It’s not pretty.

Total Government Debt distribution:

Total Corporate Debt distribution:

Total Household Debt distribution:

And one final chart showing all three non-financial debt categories combined. We leave conclusions to the reader.

Source: Metis Risk Consulting, Feasta

 

So expanding my Permaculture and slowly planning things out.   Looking around are researching things like hazelnuts as a staple crop and also a fuel source for coppicing in addition to the black locust and maples.

Still haven`t figured out where to put the chickens and goats

 

Map Key

1.  Coppicing Black Locust
2.  4.5 acres of White Pine, Spruce, Tamarck and Maples. Coppice the red     and silver maple in 15 yrs
3.  1 acre edible forest garden, perennial vegetables, fruits, salad and     nuts
4.  Annual vegetable plot with adjacent area when first is fallow after a     few years
5.  House
6.  Fruit shrubs, herbs

It takes courage and means to stray out of what folks perceive as their comfort zone, what for many is their survival zone. I waffle a lot between individual action and collective responses to our predicaments, but know that even our ‘deciders’ are trapped by complexity; bound by limits. In a sense, the ability to make decisions is hindered by a virtually immovable populace, social inertia, and those who have the real power of choice maintaining the status quo. This is why we get ineffective responses that prolong and exacerbate our collective self-destruction. Easier to just turn away and react when the time comes.

 

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Written by dcveale13

July 25, 2012 at 2:30 pm

Posted in Uncategorized

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